On September 22, 2022, Dr. Yves Tiberghien (Ph.D. Stanford University, 2002; Harvard Academy Scholar 2006; Fulbright Scholar 1996) Professor of Political Science, Konwakai Chair in Japanese Research, and Director of the Center for Japanese Research at the University of British Columbia (UBC) gave a compelling presentation to a joint group of Canada-Japan Society and Konwakai members entitled “Opportunities for Canada-Japan Relations at a Time of Escalating Tensions in the Indo-Pacific”.   

Professor Tiberghien’s remarks commenced with the provocation that we are facing the greatest interaction of systemic shocks in our lifetimes, and there is no pilot in the plane — the closest thing we have to a cockpit is the G20, but it is fractured and deadlocked.  

He noted seven current great systematic forces:  1. Russia’s war on Ukraine; 2. US democratic governance in crisis; 3. EU tensions and risks; 4. China at a fork in the road; 5. Acceleration of climate disasters; 6. Great volatility and shocks in the global economy; and 7. Multiple social, debt, and democratic crises.  And all of this is occurring in a rapidly changing world where in the last two decades (2000 to 2021): OECD countries which represented 82% of global GDP fell to 60%; G7 from 75% to 49%; Global South has risen from 18% to 40%; China from 4% to 19%; and Chinese GDP as a percentage of US GDP has risen from 12% in 2000 to 77% in 2021.  Among Canada’s Asian friends, trade dependence on China in 2020 represented 27% for Japan, 32% for Korea, 45% for Taiwan, and 43% for Australia.  

The way forward?  Strategic adjustments, coalition building, risk reduction, and mutual opportunity seeking between Canada and Japan, and creative investments in global cooperation (including support of:  G20; global climate, ocean, and biodiversity; arms control and rules of coexistence / deconflicting; and bold dialogue initiatives.